SkyNRG and ICF Release Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Outlook 2026

16 June, 2026 Amsterdam – Today, SkyNRG releases its sixth Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market Outlook, developed in collaboration with ICF. This edition marks their second co-authored report and highlights a pivotal shift in SAF market development as the industry moves from predominantly voluntary adoption to a compliance-driven landscape. With SAF mandates now in force across the European Union and the United Kingdom, and additional policy frameworks emerging worldwide, regulation is creating the long-term demand certainty needed to unlock investment and accelerate production growth.

The 2026 Market Outlook focuses on three key themes shaping the industry's future: projected SAF demand growth, the global production capacity outlook, and the role of SAF in strengthening fuel and energy resilience. As the market enters its next phase of development, the report highlights the growing importance of feedstock and technology diversification while examining the emerging constraints on HEFA-based feedstock.

SAF Demand

Global SAF demand is expected to grow from approximately 2.1 million tonnes (0.7 billion gallons) in 2025 to 3.0 million tonnes (1.0 billion gallons) in 2026, reaching 12.8 million tonnes (4.2 billion gallons) by 2030 under ICF's Current Trends scenario. Around 5 million tonnes of projected demand is linked to mandates already in force or confirmed, with an additional 3 million tonnes expected from countries likely to introduce mandates over time.

Beyond regulatory demand, airline voluntary commitments and corporate demand for Scope 3 emissions reductions certificates are expected to remain important growth drivers provided robust accounting frameworks and long-term offtake agreements continue to develop.

SAF Capacity Outlook

Global SAF production capacity is now expected to reach approximately 18.5 million tonnes (6.1 billion gallons) by 2030, up slightly from 18.1 million tonnes (6.0 billion gallons) in last year's outlook. While this is sufficient to meet projected demand through 2030, lower near-term demand expectations could create a period of temporary overcapacity in the early 2030s and delay investment decisions.

Beyond 2030, demand growth quickly overtakes the current capacity outlook, with SAF demand expected to triple to around 47 Million tonnes (16 billion gallons) by 2035. This emerging supply gap underscores the need to accelerate project delivery and the commercialization of advanced bio-based and e-SAF pathways to support long-term market growth.'

Fuel Energy Resilience through SAF

Beyond its role in decarbonizing aviation, SAF is increasingly being recognized as a strategic tool for strengthening energy security and fuel resilience. Recent geopolitical disruptions have highlighted aviation's vulnerability to global crude oil markets, refining capacity constraints, and fuel supply chain disruptions.

HEFA remains the dominant SAF production pathway, accounting for nearly 85% of announced global SAF capacity. While updated assessments point to somewhat higher long-term feedstock availability than previously estimated, the sector remains heavily reliant on feedstocks facing rising near-term competition from other industries, particularly road transport.

Feedstock availability is also unevenly distributed globally. Europe, for example, relies heavily on imported waste lipids to support biofuel production, while several Asian countries are increasingly prioritizing domestic use of feedstocks to strengthen energy security. As SAF demand grows, reliance on HEFA alone will not be sufficient to support long-term market expansion.

The report therefore highlights the growing importance of diversifying feedstocks and production pathways. Advanced biofuels and e-SAF can help broaden the aviation fuel supply base, reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, and strengthen regional energy resilience while supporting new industrial value chains.

Collaborative Industry Insight

Scaling SAF for the Future

As the SAF market matures, policy-driven demand is providing the certainty needed to accelerate growth. While near-term production capacity appears sufficient, continued progress in project execution, feedstock diversification, and next-generation technologies is critical for long-term scale. Beyond decarbonization, SAF is also enhancing energy resilience by diversifying fuel supplies. Ongoing collaboration among industry, policymakers, and investors will be key to meeting aviation's climate and energy security goals.